Is Past Experience Really That Important?

I quote from one of my favourite authors who quoted from a famous ship's captain:

Those who believe in the unconditional benefits of past experience should consider this pearl of wisdom allegedly voiced by a fa­mous ship's captain:

"But in all my experience, I have never been in any accident. . . of any sort worth speaking about. I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster of any sort."

- E. J . Smith, 1907, Captain, RMS Titanic

Captain Smith's ship sank in 1912 in what became the most talked-about shipwreck in history.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable